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Business Cycle
After discussing the growth rates in various economies and mentioning recession, I have realised that there is a confusion on the technicalities of issue. So I decided to shed light briefly on the business cycles. Gross domestic product (GDP) in its simple meaning is the value added through the production of goods and services in an economy over a certain period, which is a calendar year. And growth rate in this sense measures the percentage change of aggregate output in that economy. Accumulating these yearly growth rates we reach to the real GDP trend value and that enables us to compare the current growth rate with the long-term average growth…
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Yield Curve
Probably one of the most searched terms this month was “yield curve” and amid fluctuations in the markets, I wanted to contribute to the community by explaining the subject in a nutshell and providing visual evidence to make it clear for the ones who are interested in the issue. In order to keep it simple, I did not elaborate the subject in academic level, but I still kept the essentials intact. Although the discussion about recession and inverted yield curve was prevalent topic in financial circles, since the last quarter of 2018, central banks managed to change the perception by denying it and promising to support economies in such a…