GDP Growth – TUR

Gross Domestic Product in 2019/q4

Although the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) has revealed the fourth quarters’ data on 28th of February, due to pressing agenda on financial markets, I could not find a room to update my charts until the last weekend. Besides, Covid-19 has already ruined many expectations and most analyst see a red tape for the first quarter in many economies. Even the previously avoided recession in 2019 is now inevitable for many countries.

As the consistency of data and statistics in planing are very crucial let’s have a closer look now to the growth figures in the Turkish economy for the year 2019.

According to expenditure based gross domestic production (GDP) data, the Turkish economy has recorded a 6,0% growth at the fourth quarter on year-on-year basis. This makes an overall 0,9% growth for the year 2019. As I have already stated in the previous report that, “Due to the base effect from the last year’s record low closure and thanks to improved conditions it would be possible” it came as a fulfilling of an expectation. In the graph below, GDP by expenditure is depicted with turquoise columns and it shows a gradual increase in growth since the first quarter of 2019. 

Secondly, I have also plotted the “seasonally and calendar adjusted” data for the same period with a blue line. Being smoother with the adjustments, GDP growth rate also follows a similar pattern. Although expenditure based GDP increases gradually from the beginning of the year, adjusted data shows a sudden jump in 2019/q1 from -2,8% to 2,0% and then adjusts from there  to Index for each quarter. The recent figure for the fourth quarter is pretty relieving with 1,9% growth. Compared to the quarter before, this doubling gives hope for an upward trend. But it must be now keep in mind that the global recession will also hit the emerging markets, in which Turkey falls in.

Ergun UNUTMAZ, 06.04.2020